Estado del sector - Current market situation 25 short term,” he says, ”pressure will build as a result of the large numberofemptycontainers thatarebeingstackedat themoment.” INCREASED VOLATILITY Both experts were surprised by the speed at which freight rates fell. ” We always thought that they would decrease as soon as the congestion started to unwind. And there was some expectation that container carrierswouldmanage their capacity better as the supply chain improved. Butwith rates in that sector in free fall, itwas inevitable thatmultipurposevessel rateswould go too,” saidOatway. “What surprisedme besides that is the sheer volatilityacross the sector,” added Verschuure. “Not so much the uncertainty in the market, because that always has existed. What surprised me most is that peaks are extremely high, but troughs can also be gigantically deep. Some breakbulk sectors scored double-digit growth rates in some ports like steel and constructionmaterials, whileothers recordeddouble-digit losses.We sawthe same thing in2020and2021. And it seems that thismay continue tohappen for some time, especially given the uncertainty regarding the energy transition and a possible new surge in commodity prices following a longer period of low investments, the need for new supply chains for some commodities and new raw materials needing to bemined,” the expert stated. “Además de eso, sorprende la gran volatilidad en todo el sector- añade Verschuure-. No tanto la incertidumbre en el mercado, porque eso siempre ha existido, sino que los picos son extremadamente altos, pero las caídas también pueden ser muy profundas. Algunos sectores de carga fraccionada obtuvieron tasas de crecimiento de dos dígitos en algunos puertos, como el acero y los materiales de construcción, mientras que otros registraron pérdidas de dos dígitos. Lo mismo vimos en 2020 y 20212”. “Y parece que puede seguir haciéndolo durante algún tiempo, especialmente dada la incertidumbre sobre la transición energética y un posible nuevo aumento en los precios de las materias primas tras un período más largo de bajas inversiones, la necesidad de nuevas cadenas de suministro para algunas commodities y nuevas materias primas. materiales que necesitan ser extraídas”, considera el experto.
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