25 DIARIO DEL PUERTO MARTES 17 JUNIO 2025 mand growth in 2025 would be around 2%, lower than the global GDP of 3.2%. “Looking at the elasticity trend between global GDPand container volume, there is a decrease in the modulus of elasticity, indicating that container transport growth in 2025 wouldbe lower thanglobalGDP,” he explains. As inflation, which peaked in 2023, has shown signs of moderation, central banks started to reduce interest rates fromthe second half of 2024, which will positively affect container demand, although this will vary by country or continent. Cancellations and delays According to the “OceanFreight Market Outlook” report published last May by DHL Global Forwarding, basedondata from Drewry, Linerlytica and S&P’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), among other sources, global GDP growth forecasts are 2.2% for 2025 and 2.4% for 2026. The S&P PMI index indicates weak performance, with business expectations declining and manufacturing prices rising, especially in the US, which has an increased risk of recession. All of this would result in increasedcargobookings cancellations in ocean shipping, while demand would remain stable in other routes. Thus, Drewry and Linerlytica reduceglobal container shippinggrowthprojections to 1% in 2025. On the capacity side, DHL Global Forwarding’s report claims that cancelled voyages on the transpacific route are increasing rapidly as the U.S. tariff concessions are insufficient to restore demand, with the current rate of cancellations being higher thanusual. “Shipping lines,” the report says, “are warning of delays as congestionincreasesatEuropean ports , especial ly Antwerp, Hambu r g , Br eme rhaven , Algeciras and Valencia, limiting availablecapacity. Thus, linesare reportedly beginning to shift capacity fromthe transpacific route to other trade lanes, including Asia-Europe. Container market in 2024 The container market recorded higher thanexpectedrates in2024 due to several factors. The cumulative average of the Shanghai ContainerizedFreightIndex(SCFI) in November 2024 soared more than 150%year-on-year, reaching 2,500points. Thefirstreasonforthisincrease is that tariffs imposed by the UnitedStatesonChinaledtoananticipationofshipments,whichcausedasharpincreaseindemandfor containershipping, causingglobal containervolumetoincreaseby5.1 %year-on-year,withanestimated volumeof210millionTEUs. Secondly, as the Red Sea crisis hampered movement in the Suez Canal, the number of vessels opting to detour via the Cape ofGoodHope increased, reducing theactualsupplyinthemarket. In addition to these reasons, vessels with lower CII (Carbon Intensity Indicator) levels reduced their speedtoreducefuel consumption due toIMOdecarbonizationregulations. According to Clarkson’s data, among vessels under 3,000 TEUs, whencomparing the speed ofvesselswithCIIlevelsofA-Cand D-E, thosewith lower levels reducedspeedbyapproximately5%. New capacity in themarket In terms of global containership fleet capacity, according to Alphaliner new fleet deliveries areforecast tototal 2.1million Hacia la estabilidad de los fletes Losfletesdelmercadodecontenedorespodríandisminuiren2025encomparaciónconlos nivelesactuales, yaqueseprevéque laofertasupere lademanda. Sinembargo, laoferta podría ajustarse si los buques reducen suvelocidadpara cumplir con las regulaciones ambientalesosiaumentaelvolumendebuquesdesguazados.Porelcontrario, si lacrisis delMar Rojo se normaliza, la oferta aumentaría significativamente, lo que afectaría a losfletes. LasnuevasflotasdesplegadasesteañoenlasrutasAsia-Europa,entrelasprincipales rutasoceánicas, sumaron 1,5millonesdeTEUs, loque compensó los aumentos enotros serviciosdealtamar, comolasrutasAsia-NorteaméricayAsia-Atlántico.Sinembargo, si OrienteMedioseestabiliza,elexcesodeofertapodríaagravarsealreasignarselosbuques. EncuantoalosbuquesparalasrutasAsia-Europa, losserviciosactualmenteoperativos se hanmantenido iguales o se han reducido en comparación con el año anterior. Sin embargo, elnúmerodebuquesnuevosdesplegadosenesas rutasaumentóde240a305. Economías de escala Además, el impactoprovocadoporel excesodeofertapodríadurarenel tiempodebido a la larga vida útil de los buques. Por ello, se requeriría un tiempo considerable para mitigar la presión a la baja sobre los fletes. Así, se proyecta que las navieras logren economías de escala connuevos pedidos y respondana las regulaciones dedescarbonizaciónbasadas en los activos acumulados. Por lotanto, lapreocupaciónpor el excesodeofertay laconsiguientecompetencia tarifaria se prolongaría en 2025. Sin embargo, las alianzas implementaron acciones colectivas para defenderse del desplome de las tarifas durante la pandemia y la conciencia de las líneas navieras sobre la estabilidad de la cadena de suministro global cambió; por lo tanto, esmenosprobableque las tarifasde los contenedores caiganpor debajodel puntode equilibrio. Towards freight rate stability Containermarketfreightratescoulddeclinein2025comparedtocurrentlevels,assupply isexpectedtooutstripdemand.However,supplycouldadjustifshipsslowdowntocomply withenvironmentalregulationsorifthevolumeofscrappedvesselsincreases.Conversely, iftheRedSeacrisisnormalizes,supplywouldincreasesignificantly,affectingfreightrates. NewfleetsdeployedthisyearontheAsia-Europeroutes,amongthemainoceanroutes, added 1.5millionTEUs, offsetting increases inother deep-sea services, suchas theAsiaNorthAmericaandAsia-Atlanticroutes.However, if theMiddleEast stabilizes, theoversupplycouldworsenasvesselsare reallocated. As forvessels for theAsia-Europe routes, currentlyoperatingserviceshave remainedthesameordecreasedcomparedtothepreviousyear.However, thenumberofnewvesselsdeployedontheseroutesincreasedfrom 240to305. Economies of scale Inaddition, the impact causedbyoversupplycould lastover timedue tothe long lifeof the vessels. Therefore, considerable timewouldbe required tomitigate thedownward pressureonfreightrates.Thus,shippinglinesareprojectedtoachieveeconomiesofscale with neworders and respond to decarbonization regulations based on accumulated assets. Therefore, concernsaboutoversupplyandtheresultingratecompetitionwouldlinger into 2025. However, alliances implemented collective actions todefend against the rateplungeduringthepandemicandshippinglines’awarenessofthestabilityoftheglobalsupplychainchanged;therefore,containerratesarelesslikelytofallbelowbreakeven. Los fletes del mercado de contenedores podrían disminuir en 2025 en comparación con los niveles actuales. / Freight rates in the container market could decline by 2025 compared to current levels.
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